PGA Picks: RBC Canadian Open

What an Open!  A thrilling four days in Scotland ended on Sunday with a free-for-all, with Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, and even a hung-over Eddie Pepperell all in the mix for the major win well into the late holes.  But it was steady Francesco Molinari, who birdied 18 and never flinched, that held off all comers and became Italy’s first-ever golfing Major Champion.

From there it’s back to the PGA and the RBC Canadian Open, a par 72 course that couldn’t be more different than the Open at Carnoustie.  Played at Glen Abbey Golf Course in Ontario, Canada, it’s a Par 72 playing at 7,253 yards.

Yes, this means we are back to having 4 Par 5s, and that means Par 5 scoring is definitely back in play.  The champion will probably be in the -18 to -22 range.  But some caution is in order – while scoring on the Par 5’s is highly desirable, I think there is something even more important this week than simple Par 5 scoring – birdie to bogey ratio.  The underrated aspect of this course that needs to be a big consideration is, oddly enough, bogey avoidance to go with the big scoring.

Hot Shots

Dustin Johnson ($11,700 – DraftKings, $12,500 – FanDuel)

There he is – fresh off his bad missed cut in the Open, DJ leads the PGA in birdie-to-bogey ratio at 2.04, the only PGA pro above 2.  Yes, he’s the highest-priced golfer in the field.  Don’t overthink the missed cut last week – embrace his bounceback this week.

Tony Finau ($9,800 – DraftKings, $12,100 – FanDuel)

Finau has been so close to his second PGA Tour win for months now, carding 5 Top 25 finishes in his last seven tournaments, including some that you might have heard of, the Open and the U.S. Open.  Could it be here?  He’s a prototypical bomber with the birdie-to-bogey ratio we love, along with some nice course history backing him up.

Mid Tier

Bubba Watson ($9,600 – DraftKings, $11,600 – FanDuel)

Like DJ, ignore the missed cut in the Open and think more about his solid ball-striking.  In general I like big hitters that missed the cut last week, and Bubba is another one I have my eye on as a good match for this course.

Keegan Bradey ($8,100 – DraftKings, $9,700 – FanDuel)

The middle tier is in pretty rough shape, but Keegan Bradley is one of the better ball-strikers of the bunch.  On a course where elite putting isn’t a huge need area, Bradley’s strengths line up well, more so on FanDuel rather than DraftKings.

Low Tier

Chris Kirk ($7,600 – DraftKings, $10,100 – FanDuel)

There are so many great values under $8k on DraftKings that it’s hard to limit yourself to just one or two, but I am planning to be overweight on Chris Kirk no matter what.  Kirk has been on the brink of qualifying for the major tour events, and could definitely pop on a course like this, especially with his elite birdie-to-bogey ratio numbers.

Keith Mitchell ($7,400 – DraftKings, $9,200 – FanDuel)

Another guy who has been going extremely strong over the last few months and is on the brink of breaking out with a PGA Tour Win is Mitchell, who again is in that sweet spot of bomber and bogey avoider.  The knock on him is that he’s had a tough time putting together four straight solid rounds, but I want to be there when he does, and it could be this week at this low-scoring course.

Other Notables I Like:

Ollie Schniederjans ($7,900 DK, $9,200 FD) – Love the fact that he’s just a tad bit overpriced on DraftKings, making him a possible ball-striking GPP play that could pay off handsomely

J.T. Poston ($7,200 DK, $9,1,00 FD) – Birdie-to-bogey ratio guy who has played better this year than last season’s injury-riddled year

Seamus Power ($7,000 DK, $8,200 FD) –  Bomber and decent bogey avoider, love this combination this week

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Chuck Burton

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2018-10-19T17:28:10-04:00