PGA Picks: AT&T Byron Nelson

Though Webb Simpson ended up running away with the win last week in the THE PLAYERS Championship at Pontre Vera Beach, Florida last week, there were some great moments, like seeing Tiger Woods and Jordan Spieth attacking the water-surrounded 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass.

Tiger is taking the week off, but Spieth will be one of the headliners in Dallas, Texas in the AT&T Byron Nelson this week.

Last year – at a completely different golf course, mind you -Billy Horschel won this tournament with a -12 score.  This year, this is being contested at Trinity Forest, which is a links-style Par 71 course that doesn’t have much on the form of water hazards but might be subject to winds.

When I looked closely at this field, I downplayed the normal ball-striking numbers and really focused on Shots Gained: Approach and especially long approach shots, with a bit of windy, links-specialist types sprinkled in.  This course is being pitched as a wild card that anyone can win, but guys with experience on EURO Tour courses, which tend to be more links-style, I feel have somewhat of an advantage.

Hot Shots

Jordan Spieth ($11,900 – DraftKings, $12,900 – FanDuel)

Spieth, who is a member at this course, won’t be surprised by a lot that this course has to offer, and though his putter has been wobbly these last few months, I keep going back to his tremendous Open win last year, exhibiting some of the skills that he’ll need here at this course – using the roll to get onto the green, dealing with wind, etc.  I think he has an excellent chance of winning this

Sergio Garcia ($10,100 – DraftKings, $12,400 – FanDuel)

Like Spieth, Garcia is no stranger to links-style courses since he’s played them often when he was a regular on the EURO Tour.   Priced at a discount due to his recent (bad) form, it feels like the perfect time to take the discount and see if he can recoup his mojo this weekend.  He has the upside to win the tournament.

Mid Tier

Peter Uihlein ($8,500 – DraftKings, $8,800 – FanDuel)

Criminally priced on FanDuel, Mr. Titelist (so named since he is the son of Titelist’s former CEO) cut his teeth on the EURO tour and also has some tremendous Shots Gained: Approach numbers that I think we want here.  Good value on DraftKings: exceptional value on FanDuel.

Scott Piercy ($8,400 – DraftKings, $9,600 – FanDuel)

Out first non-EURO tour player, Piercy’s all-around game is not as refined as the top guys in this field but he is one of the best guys on the PGA Tour in approach shots, which I think will translate extremely well.

Low Tier

Aaron Baddeley ($7,500 – DraftKings, $8.600 – FanDuel)

It is likely this week’s DFG tournaments and cash games are going to be won and lost based on your low tier picks, and Baddeley is a PGA Tour regular that has struggled to stay on the Tour but recently has impressed with exactly the skill set we’re looking for – iron play.  Though his overall iron form hasn’t been consistent, I’m looking for him to continue his solid approach game play this week and make a run at the top of the leaderboard.

Talor Gooch ($7,300 – DraftKings, $7,900 – FanDuel)

Talor is a 26 year old who is coming off of a solid four days at THE PLAYERS scoring a bogey-free 66 on Day 3 to sneak into the T20, thanks to exceptional work with the irons..  I’m thinking he’ll be able to keep up this pace and do well at this course as well, riding a nice wave of momentum.

Other Notables I Like:

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,900 DK, $11,600 FD) – Might be hard to shoehorn into your lineups alongside Spieth or Sergio, but his second round at THE PLAYERS (even though he missed the cut) shows he has the upside to turn it around and win in Dallas

Beau Hossler ($9,000 DK, $9,500 FD) – Is this the tournament where the 23 year old Hoss finally breaks through?  This course will not surprise him much, being that it’s his home course

Hunter Mahan ($6,900 DK, $8,100 FD) – Also his home course, the former Ryder Cup member is attractively priced for the local knowledge and the strong iron play

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Chuck Burton

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