Rob Geriak’s NHL Point Shot Breakdown – 1/11/17
Last night was full of exciting action in the NHL. The Blackhawks were able to sneak by the Detroit Red Wings in overtime giving Corey Crawford a win with 33 saves on 36 shots against. Some standouts in this game included the sneaky third line of Tanner Kero, Ryan Hartman, and Richard Panik. Kero had a goal and four shots on net, Panik had a goal, an assist, and two shots on net, and Hartman had two assists. Great production from a third line that combined was probably around 10% owned. Duncan Keith also had a goal and an assist living up to his high salary and popular ownership. The Bruins were able to go to St. Louis and beat the Blues 5-3. I had told you guys yesterday that I had a feeling on the Bruins, but more on them in a second. One of the unexpected disappointments from last night was Vladimir Tarasenko. This guy came in hotter than a firecracker and laid a complete egg last night. Boston saw most of their production from the top line, which was my top line from last night. Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and David Pastrnak all combined for two goals (Marchand) and six assists (one for Marchand, two for Bergeron, and three for Pastrnak). Key value option Frank Vatrano chipped in with a power-play goal and an assist. Torey Krug continued his hot play with a goal and an assist. The Predators had a down offensive night but did enough to get Pekka Rinne the win as he stopped 29 of 30 shots against him. The Buffalo Sabres put up four goals last night, with most of the work being done by the second and third lines. Sam Reinhart had a power play goal and an assist, Ryan O’Reilly had two assists, and Rasmus Ristolainen had a helper. Some of the major disappointments last night include the aforementioned Tarasenko for the Blues. Patrick Kane of the Blackhawks made it onto the score sheet, but only with one assist; I expected more. Jack Eichel was invisible for the Sabres last night. If you had told me earlier in the day that the Sabres would score four goals and Eichel wouldn’t be a factor I would have thought you were crazy. Hopefully, you were all successful last night and can continue riding that success into tonight’s four-game slate!
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Rob’s Key 3 Skaters
Mark Scheifele (FD $7600/DK $6700)
Scheifele and the Winnipeg Jets host the Montreal Canadiens tonight in an all-Canada matchup. Scheifele has scored points in five of his last seven games (three goals and four assists) and has needed to elevate his play after susperstar winger Patrik Laine went down with an injury. The Canadiens are banged up, most notably up the middle with Alex Galchenyuk, the teams top line center out of action. This leaves some more room for Scheifele to navigate up the middle of the ice. He’s skating on the second line with veteran winger Drew Stafford and 20 year-old Nik Ehlers, who is having a great season in his own right. Scheifele has scored 17 goals, four of them on the power play, and dished off 20 assists this season. Look for a productive night out of the 23 year-old centerman for the Jets.
Johnny Gaudreau (FD $7600/DK $7200)
The Flames are home tonight hosting the San Jose Sharks playing on the back end of a back-to-back. Gaudreau has been up and down a bit of late, but tonight is the perfect spot for him to succeed. He’s scored 27 points in 33 games this year, which is low level production for him. Every year there are a few guys that underwhelm in the first few months of the season and then pick it up in the second half. I think Gaudreau fits that bill perfectly. The Flames have been skating better as a team of late, Gaudreau is healthy after an early season hand injury that kept him out of action for some time, and the Sharks are coming in after playing a tough phyical game last night. I’ll have Johnny in all of my lineups tonight and you should too.
Sidney Crosby (FD $9400/DK $8300)
Crosby is always considered a top play but tonight I think he really steps up big. Taking on their rival the Washington Capitals, the Pittsburgh Penguins head onto the road winners of five straight games. Crosby was held off of the score sheet in these teams’ first matchup up, but has had a stellar season scoring 44 points in 33 games. These two teams always play each other tough and it should be a great game. I expect a multi-point effort from “Sid The Kid” tonight.
Thomas Greiss (FD $8400/DK $7400)
With the disastrous Jaroslav Halak sitting down in the AHL, Greiss has felt no pressure as the Islanders top goaltender, and it shows. Greiss is 2-2 in his last four games, but could easily be 4-0 with both losses coming in overtime. Over these last four games, Greiss has stopped 123 shots out of a possible 129 attempts. That’s a save percentage of .953 which is elite. In each of his last five games, Greiss has compiled FanDuel point totals of 16.8, 21.6, 29.6, 30.4, and 42.4. These are numbers you will gladly take for a goalie at his price tag. Tonight the Islanders host the Florida Panthers and come in as a -121 favorite. I see at leasat 30 shots being sent Gress’ way and while he may allow a goal or two, I love his chances of picking up a win.
Connor Hellebuyck (FD $8300/DK $7300)
Hellebuyck is coming off a shutout in his last game as he stopped 28 shots against the Calgary Flames. He’s won three of his last four games and gets an opportunity tonight at home against the Canadiens. Overall, Hellebuyck is 16-13-1 this season with a 2.65 goals against average and a .913 save percentage. Not staggering numbers by any means, however I think he sees a ton of shots tonight and will ride the momentum from his last game into tonight. I think Winnipeg scores some goals tonight giving Hellebuyck a great chance at grabbing a win.
Others to Consider: Roberto Luongo (FLA), Carey Price (MTL – if using him, be sure that he starts)
Teams to Target
Winnipeg Jets vs Montreal Canadiens
I love the Jets tonight, and think they will be lower owned than usual. The top line has Bryan Little centering Matthieu Perreault and Blake Wheeler. This line is affective and Little and Perreault are priced very low on both sites for their expected production. I prefer the second line of Mark Scheifele, Nik Ehlers, and veteran winger Drew Stafford. All six players see time on the power play, which will increase there upside. Look at Dustin Byfuglien on defense and Jacob Trouba on the blue line as he hold some nice value.
Calgary Flames vs San Jose Sharks
The Flames start and end with Johnny Gaudreau for me tonight. I love the spot he and his teammates are in at home against the Sharks who played last night. Gaudreau skates on the top line with Sean Monahan and value winger Alex Chiasson. The second line of Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund, and Michael Frolik is a line to look at with good scoring potential. Kris Versteeg is a nice value stand alone option as he always has a nose for the puck and is a shoot first type of winger. Mark Giordano is often a top defense option and tonight is no different. I prefer TJ Brodie, though as his price will help you save some salary.
San Jose Sharks @ Calgary Flames
I touched on the Flames as a top team to target, and I like some of the Sharks’ side too. I’m looking at the top line as my only line I’m really targeting from this group. Joe Pavelski has been playing very well lately along with Joe Thornton on the top line. The third wheel to that line is Timo Meier who has really benefit from playing with the two veterans. Meier hasn’t consistently found himself on the score sheet, but he’s been shooting the puck often and I think some goals are coming. His price is still very low on both sites as he provides you with a ton of value. Brent Burns is on top of his game right now after another impressive showing last night and will be popular in cash games as he always seems to be.
New York Islanders vs Florida Panthers
I will be keeping up on the news very intently today we could see James Reimer in net for the Panthers. If that’s the case, I am going to take a very hard look at the Islanders. John Tavares is a top player in this league stuck on a bad team with mostly mediocre talent around him. The thing with Tavares is he makes the players around him better making his line a target for me tonight. Anders Lee and Josh Bailey skate on his line as the wingers. Lee has scored 14 goals this season and added four helpers. Bailey has scored five goals and dished out 19 assists. All three play on the power play and have combined for eight goals with the man advantage. The second line of Shane Prince, Brock Nelson, and Ryan Strome is one to consider for GPP’s as all three players hold some upside as they all see power play time. Nick Leddy is one of the better puck moving defenseman in the league and Johnny Boychuk has scored five goals on the blue line this season.
Others to Consider: Florida Panthers – Top Line and Keith Yandle on defense, Montreal Canadiens – Top Line and Shea Weber on defense, Pittsburgh Penguins – Top Line, Second Line, Kris Letang on defense
Favorite Line Stacks
Winnipeg Jets Second Line
Ehlers – Scheifele – Stafford
Calgary Flames First Line
Gaudreau – Monahan – Chiasson
Sneaky Line Stacks
New York Islanders Second Line
Prince – Nelson – Strome
Calgary Flames Second Line
Tkachuk – Backlund – Frolik
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*Keep in mind that skater lines may change after teams hold morning skating sessions. Any lineup updates can be found on the NHL Channel in our Slack Chat