Yesterday was a pretty good DFS night, with none of my top picks really underperforming but none hitting crazy value – top value pick was Steven Adams at 6.4x. Today’s main 5-game slate gives us some more material to end week four of NBA basketball on a high note. Here is your daily breakdown:
Indiana Pacers at Houston Rockets -3: Total 209.5
These two teams faced each other in Indiana last week, which means this will be the last time the Rockets and Pacers play against each other until the 2019-20 season. Their last game was low-scoring and slow overall, as the Rockets struggled to make shots that they typically made last season. The Pacers did not look much better overall and lost the game. Tonight I plan on having James Harden ($9,400), Chris Paul ($7,100), and Clint Capela ($6,400). It may sound dumb to trust Paul, but he has to get something going at this price; the same logic applies with James Harden, who did hit value in that game against Indiana. Finally, Myles Turner is often soft on the boards; I expect Clint Capela to destroy him, especially if Domantas Sabonis is unable to play and Turner is forced to play extended minutes.
TOP PICK: James Harden. It would be crazy for him to miss value at this price.
Orlando Magic at New York Knicks -1: Total 209.5
You want to stack certain names from both teams tonight, as they are both miserable and have big defensive holes. From Orlando, look out for Aaron Gordon ($7,700), Evan Fournier ($6,500), and Terrence Ross ($4,900). Gordon and Fournier have favorable matchups, while Ross has been big off the Magic’s bench scoring and adding some extra stats. From the Knicks, Tim Hardaway Jr. ($7,300) continues to chuck up shots, Enes Kanter ($6,600) is expected to get enough minutes off the bench to hit value, while Mario Hezonja ($3,800) will come in with extra motivation to punish his former squad, who rejected his fourth-year rookie team option and released him to unrestricted free agency.
TOP PICK: Tim Hardaway Jr. His usage rate is so high that it only makes sense for him to do well tonight. The Magic is not an outstanding defensive team, which also runs in Hardaway’s favor.
Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets -3.5: Total 222.5
In this star-studded contest, it will be the stars that will determine who emerges victorious. The bigger names are fortunately not directly matched up against each other, which reduces the risk of them being busts. Jamal Murray ($6,900) and Nikola Jokic ($9,600) will be the Nuggets you want in your lineups today, as Murray has performed well when the stakes are high and Jokic appears to be back on track after abusing the Nets’ defense – albeit in a loss. On the other hand, the duo of Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200) and Khris Middleton ($7,000) continues to be the play; they are the first and second scoring options in Milwaukee and their length is a plus on the defensive end.
TOP PICK: Giannis Antetokounmpo. He also shone brightly in a close loss to the Clippers just last night, but there is not anything that the Greek Freak cannot do in a basketball court.
Boston Celtics at Portland Trail Blazers -2.5: Total 214.5
As per usual, no Celtics in my books but I will stick with my Blazers core trio of Evan Turner ($5,000), Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,900), and Zach Collins ($4,000). These three guys usually perform well no matter the matchup and also play tough defense.
TOP PICK: Nobody. These are solid bench guys or fringe starters, so do not expect a crazy night from them. They should still hit value for cheap.
Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Lakers -11.5: Total 238
This game will more likely than not be a blowout, in which case the young guys should all see extra minutes. I will take Lonzo Ball ($5,000), Josh Hart ($4,400), Brandon Ingram ($6,000), and Kyle Kuzma ($6,000). Whether or not the game ends early, these players have a chance to perform well against arguably the worst team in the NBA in their usual roles. Look out for Tyson Chandler ($3,100), who played over 20 minutes in his last game, to continue grabbing rebounds in volume.
TOP PICK: Brandon Ingram. I have been on him for some games and he is yet to surprise me or anyone. He has a chance to do that against a very bad team.
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