NBA DFS: BSmith’s Plays – March 12th, 2018
Back to normal in terms of today’s research and projections and the format of the daily GPP Article. 4-game slate, with an 8PM EST start time, so we get an extra hour on lineup news. Here we go with tonight’s plays, as always feel free to hit me up on Twitter @BSmithDraftshot with any roster questions or just to rap basketball. Thanks for reading!
GPP POINT GUARDS:
Russell Westbrook $12,100
There are 3 top-tier options tonight, and Westbrook is the one I’ll be targeting. Harden is coming off an injury situation and shouldn’t need to play massive minutes in what should be a blowout, and Giannis may not need to do much for the Bucks to destroy Memphis tonight. I’d rank the three players Russ>Giannis>Harden in terms of GPP’s this evening, and I think the Kings have a chance to keep this game close as the Thunder are an awful defensive team.
Tyler Johnson $4,900
Wade is out tonight, and Tyler Johnson, Goran Dragic and Wayne Ellington should soak up all of the minutes at guard tonight for Miami. Tyler has 45+ fantasy point upside, and is priced down here in an excellent matchup with a Blazers team that really struggles against opposing guards. Love this play tonight.
De’Aaron Fox $5,700
Every time I roster Fox he gets hurt, early. I’m not likely to roster him tonight for that reason alone, however he is in a great spot against a Thunder team that can’t stop opposing PG’s at all. 35+ fantasy point upside and likely low ownership on the short slate, worth gambling on but not for the faint of heart.
Cash Game PG: RWB, Lillard, Bledsoe, Fox, Tyler Johnson
GPP SHOOTING GUARDS:
Khris Middleton $7,000
Priced too low, and gets an excellent matchup against a Memphis team that doesn’t defend wings well at all. Middleton is going to fly a bit under the radar tonight in my humble opinion, with Harden/Ellington being the chalk combo, and he’s got clear 45+ fantasy point upside. If he goes off tonight and you fade Harden, you’ll be well ahead of the field.
Wayne Ellington $4,000
Again, D-Wade is out tonight, and Ellington should see 25-30 minutes here. He’s got a relatively high floor and 8x upside tonight at a position where there aren’t any other value options I want to look at. Eat the chalk here if you need to save at one of the SG positions.
C.J. McCollum $7,300
CJ is priced right, and will wind up paired with Middleton for me in a lot of GPP entries on FanDuel this evening. The Heat play up in pace, struggle against wings, and CJ has 45ish fantasy point upside in this matchup. This game should fly over the Vegas total and produce a lot of fantasy goodness tonight.
Cash Game SG: Harden, McCollum, Middleton, Gordon, Bogdan, Ellington
GPP SMALL FORWARDS:
Paul George $8,800
Giannis will be the chalk, and there are plenty of mid-tier options available as well as value options on this slate. PG may fall a bit under the radar, and blowout concerns should keep his ownership lower as well. 50+ fantasy point upside, and even higher than that if Steven Adams sits tonight which will help keep this game closer.
Rudy Gay $4,400
Aldridge is out tonight, and Rudy should see 25 minutes or so against a team that absolutely can’t stop opposing wings. If Rudy gets it going, he could see a few extra minutes here, and has 8x or higher upside in this spot. I like Kyle Anderson here at SF as well, and it’s all due to the excellent matchup.
Corey Brewer $3,800
Brewer is making the most of his opportunities so far in OKC, playing close to 30 minutes a night. He has a high floor at this price and 8x+ upside in an excellent matchup with the Kings who really struggle against opposing SG’s and turn it over in bunches. Love this value option on the short slate.
Cash Game SF: George, Richardson, Giannis, Anderson, Ariza, Winslow
GPP POWER FORWARDS:
Zach Randolph $5,900
Skal has been ruled out tonight, meaning Zbo should play significant mintes. He played 40 last time these two teams met, and went off for 45.4 FDP, and although I’m confident he won’t see those kind of minutes tonight, he does have 35+ fantasy point upside if he seeds 25-30 minutes here. My favorite GPP PF on this slate.
Kelly Olynyk $5,100
Olynyk and James Johnson will both be chalky, and I prefer Olynyk tonight as he’s going to get the far better matchup in terms of the guys on the court while he plays. Portland is pretty tough against 3’s and 4’s, and JJ is a bit of a hybrid of the two. Portland’s bench is lousy defensively, and Olynyk is going to see a lot of minutes with the 2’s. 35+ fantasy point upside and should carry a bit lower ownership than JJ tonight.
James Johnson $4,600
Went nuts in his last start with Whiteside out, and with Whiteside out again tonight he’ll be chalky. I like his high floor, but don’t love his upside tonight in a tough road matchup where he’ll see a lot of Al-Farouq Aminu’s excellent defense opposite him.
Cash Game PF: Green, Randolph, Melo, Parker, Olynyk, James Johnson, Bertans
Marc Gasol $7,800
Should be the chalk tonight on a night where Center is tough. He sat out Saturday to rest, and gets a very nice matchup tonight with a Bucks team that really has struggled and allowed some monster games to centers over the past month. John Henson is a solid shot blocker, but isn’t going to be able to deal with Gasol’s versatility tonight down low, and I expect 40+ fantasy points with ease here. Clear top option at this position.
Clint Capela $7,200
Dreadful last night in a great spot, and a sneaky good matchup tonight against a soft interior defense for the Spurs. Having Harden back out there will do nothing but help him, and recency bias should keep his ownership down which makes him an excellent GPP play tonight.
Pau Gasol $6,000
He should be the offensive focal point with Aldridge out tonight, and has easy triple double upside in this spot if the Spurs can keep this game remotely close. I don’t think they will, so I won’t have much exposure here, but if you think this game is competitive Gasol may be the play of the night at Center.
Cash Game C: Gasol, Capela, Gasol