NBA DFS: BSmith’s Plays – March 11th, 2018
In light of the fact that Tiger Woods is in the hunt on Sunday, and I’ll be glued to my TV like a kid on Christmas Morning, I’m going to write up both the Early and Late NBA slates for everyone this morning. Rather than list full GPP plays for each slate, I’m going to give you my core-4 to build around for each of these two slates, and a sample GPP lineup for each. Here we go with today’s plays, as always feel free to hit me up on Twitter @BSmithDraftshot with any roster questions or just to rap basketball. Thanks for reading!
EARLY SLATE CORE:
Ricky Rubio $7,000
New Orleans is near the bottom of the league against opposing point guards, and Rubio is rounding back into form. He’s averaging 33 minutes per game over his last 4, and he’s been hit or miss from the field and awful from 3-point range during those 4. He’s nearly hit value in all 4 of them, and I think today he puts it all together in an absolute smash spot in New Orleans. 45+ fantasy points with ease.
Gary Harris $6,700
Priced back down under $7,000, and he’s a no brainer in this price range. Another incredible matchup for Harris, who’s also got 45+ fantasy point upside tonight and a high floor due to his ability to play close to 40 minutes a night and fill up a stat sheet. If this game stays close, Denver is going to be the source of a lot of value today.
Kevin Durant $10,600
No-brainer, and he’ll be chalky. He’s not priced high enough for his upside with Steph out, and this game should be played way up in pace. With Jimmy Butler out, the Wolves are going to have a very tough time dealing with Durant, and he should absolutely dominate this game. Throw in a few blocks and steals and he’s got 65+ fantasy point upside here.
Draymond Green $8,100
Triple-double upside, and with Steph out I want both KD and Draymond in my lineups today. He’s got around a 32 fantasy point floor, and 60 fantasy point upside today in Minnesota, and while Taj Gibson is a nice defender, he’s not going to be able to deal with Draymond at the elbow running the offense when KD isn’t playing ISO ball. Get both Warriors in your lineups today, and thank me later.
*This core leaves you with $5,520 per player to round your lineups out, and there is plenty of value to go around on this early slate. Here’s a sample lineup to give you an idea of how I’ll be building today.
Sample Early GPP Lineup:
MAIN SLATE CORE:
Chris Paul $8,200
James Harden is expected to sit today, and if he does, there’s no need to overthink this. Chris Paul becomes an elite play in this scenario, and his usage will go through the roof in an insane matchup with a horrible Dallas defense on the second night of a back to back set. 50+ fantasy point upside with ease.
Jeff Green $3,600
Jeff is going to start for the Cavs tonight, and likely will see 30+ minutes with Cedi and Hood out. He’s near-min price against one of the worst defenses in the league, and I’m going to have 100% exposure here. 30ish fantasy point upside easily, and a high floor considering the projected minutes. Don’t overthink this.
Larry Nance Jr $7,800
Larry will be chalky, and he should be. The Lakers front-court is among the worst in the league defensively, and Nance is going to dominate the glass on both ends here tonight in LA. 50ish fantasy point upside, and a very high floor here against his old teammates. I think you can get away with fading LeBron here tonight with all of the other incredible options on the Cavs.
Joel Embiid $9,400
Three straight awful performances for Embiid, who might have hit a bit of a wall this season after the All-Star break. There’s nothing quite like a matchup with the Nets to turn that around. This game is going to be very high scoring and closely contested, and Embiid is priced down to where he has massive upside tonight. I think his ownership will be a bit down due to recency bias, and I’m going to hop on board tonight and let him carry me to 60ish fantasy points.
*This core leaves you with $5,800 per player remaining. There are a ton of great options on this slate, and plenty of value options to work with as well. The chalk build is going to be Cavs/Lakers stacks, and I’m not going to stack this game as heavily as most.
Sample Main GPP Lineup: