Lowroda’s Low Down Ground and Pound: UFC Fight Night 113: Glasgow

  1. After UFC 213 and all that, THAT entailed, we’re back across the pond for UFC Fight Night 113, Glasgow.  It’s definitely a bunch of hometown dependent, not a big name…filled card, but still a well-matched card.  There’s a little bit for everyone here. We’ve got action-striking, top prospects, potential contender fights, etc. There’s a nice “sprinkling” of fights that feel interesting and exciting for different reasons. Plus, this is a Sunday Afternoon card. Could it be more perfect? Probably, but this is what we have…so let’s dig in.

 

UFC Fight Night 113 Main Event:

170 lbs.: Gunnar Nelson -200 ($8,900) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio +170 ($7,300)

When the week began, I liked Ponzinibbio. Then as the week wore on, I found more and more reasons to be off of him.  Nelson has been on a tear lately and with his elite takedowns and grappling, I think he’s going to get a submission win here.  However, if Ponsinibbio can keep it standing, he has a chance. I just don’t see him with the skillset to keep Nelson from doing whatever he wants to do.  Plus, Nelson has been performing very methodically his past few fights, almost negating the striking.Ryan LaFlare took down Ponsinibbio down at will, repeatedly. If HE was able to dominate, I see no reason why Nelson has a problem.  I have no reason to not be at least 80% on Nelson.

 

Pick: Nelson all formats. If you want to throw Ponsinibbio in a line to be different, I get it. I just have a difficult time doing that based on how good Nelson has looked these past few months.

 

UFC Fight Night 113 Main Card On FOX Sports 1 (3 p.m. ET):

115 lbs.: Joanne Calderwood +210 ($7,400) vs. Cynthia Calvillo -270 ($8,800)

If this stays on the feet Calderwood has a shot but with her 66% takedown defense against someone with the grappling of Calvillo, I think she’s in trouble. However Calderwood has 6.92 strikes landed per minute. That’s EXTREMELY high. I could see using Calderwood as a punt GPP play, but I’ll take Calvillo all day here. I think she’s taking it to the ground and ending it.The only thing I don’t like about Calvillo is that price.

 

Pick: Calvillo cash and GPP’s

 

155 lbs.: Paul Felder -105 ($8,100) vs. Stevie Ray -125 ($8,100)

Both guys are priced the same, so the rule is play them both.  These two are very, VERY evenly matched. These guys have the same height, same reach, both strike at the same pace. I’d give the sleight edge to Stevie Ray but I see this as a high volume fight from both sides. Felder DOES have a tendency to lose these close fights, so take note of that. However, these guys are priced evenly so play them both.

 

Pick: Stevie Ray, both for GPP’s

185 lbs.: Ryan Janes +320 ($7,000) vs. Jack Marshman -425 ($9,200)

The way this is playing out, Marshman should KO Janes…quickly.  However, Janes has really good freestyle submissions.  I have a feeling Marshman is going to be heavily owned, but there’s a reason for that. So…is he the highly owned fighter that you HAVE to have to make the cash? Or are you okay if you avoid him?  What I remember from Janes’ previous fights, he never moves his head, so he gets hit…a lot. I’m going Marshman here. Marshman finishes 66% of his fights by KO. Lock.

 

Pick: Marshman all formats.  

205 lbs.: Paul Craig +190 ($7,700) vs. Khalil Rountree -250 ($8,500)

I’m never comfortable when Rountree’s in a fight.  Rountree struggles on the ground and Craig is a beast with submissions.  This fight depends how you think it’s going to go. If it stays standing, Rountree’s the victor. On the ground, Craig’s your guy.  This really just depends on how the fight is dictated. So, you’re going to want exposure from both sides. Rountree has 50% takedown defense and 89% of Craig’s wins have come by submission. Stay away from this one in cash because there’s really no true idea what’s going to happen. Either Rountree KO’s Craig, or Craig gets the sub. GPP’s only.

 

Pick: Craig by first round sub.  Both sides for GPP

 

265 lbs.: James Mulheron +170 ($7,500) vs. Justin Willis -215 ($8,700)

I didn’t like Mulheron at first but the more footage I saw, the more I started to lean his way.  Mulheron is a highly conditioned athlete with HIGH output.  He seems well-rounded.  Willis is a good athlete, but has underdeveloped striking.  As long as this stays on the feet, I see an easy path to victory for Mulheron. However, if Willis is able to get Mulheron to the ground and dominate him from there, he’s got a shot. However, Mulheron’s pretty well-rounded so he won’t be completely out of his element.  Willis also tends to tire around the second round. Mulheron never…stops…throwing….shots. Also…Mulheron’s never been finished.

 

Pick: Mulheron. Heavily in GPP’s, slight cash. You’re going to want exposure to Willis in GPP’s as well. He’s a wrestler who scores off transitions. As we know, takedowns score points.

 

UFC Fight Night 113 “Prelims” On FOX Sports 1 (1 p.m. ET):

170 lbs.: Bobby Nash-245 ($7,100) vs. Danny Roberts +185 ($9,100)

I love Nash at this price. He’s got a top-level wrestling game from Michigan State. He’s going to be able to grind down Roberts, pushing him up against the cage.  He’s also the better striker. Honestly both of these guys have upside. Nash’s power upside and Roberts’ volume, but they both average over 4 strikes per minute as it is. What I DO like is Nash’s grappling credentials against Roberts, who has a 54% takedown defense. I like both guys, but I love Nash’s upside for GPP’s and Cash.

 

Pick: Nash, both formats.  You can sprinkle in Roberts but he’s going to have to work to make value at $9100.

125 lbs.: Alexandre Pantoja -350 ($9,000) vs. Neil Seery+260($7,200)

This is basically Seery’s retirement fight and there are a lot of guys within Pantoja’s price range that you could use in place of him.  However a grappler the prowess of Pantoja against a fighter with 54% takedown defense, leads one to believe there are points in takedowns for Pantoja. I don’t expect a finish in this fight. It’s a flyweight fight that could go back and forth with takedowns. You can make a case to play either fighter in either format.

 

Pick: Pantoja, all formats. You’ll probably want to sneak Seery in a couple of lines as well but do it sparingly.

 

170 lbs.: Galore Bofando -230 ($8,600)vs. Charlie Ward +170 ($7,600)

First off, how about that name? Bofando! This feels like one of those fights the UFC sets up to get someone an easy victory. That someone being Bofando. Bofando’s a better version of Abdul Razak Alhassan and ALhassan ran through Ward in his most recent fight.  I don’t know that I really “like” Bofando but at this point in his career, Ward isn’t going to put up much of a fight and what I saw of Bofando, he’s got really good striking.. If you’re getting exposure to this fight at all, go Bofando.

 

Pick: Bofando all formats. I like him as a low-owned tournament option. Most people don’t know that name and he’s setup for a victory or early finish here.

 

155 lbs.: Danny Henry -225 ($7,200) vs. Daniel Teymur +175 ($9,000)

Another UFC brother connection! Daniel Teymur, brother of David Teymur faces Danny Henry. To be honest, there’s not much out there on Danny Henry, but he comes into this fight as the favorite. Teymur is very similar to his brother, in that he’s a power striker and that he has a good submission game and he’s a finisher. I like Teymur in cash as well as GPP.

 

Pick: Teymur all formats

 

UFC Fight Night 113 “Prelims” On UFC Fight Pass (12 p.m. ET):

135 lbs.: Brett Johns -410 ($9,300) vs. Albert Morales +315 ($6,900)

I’m gonna be honest, i don’t see why Johns is such a heavy favorite. I mean, unless Vegas thinks his pasty, white skin is going to blind Morales long enough for Johns to walk right up to Morales and knock him out.  Johns SHOULD win this fight, but -410? You’ve almost GOT to take a shot on Morales. Either way, this is going to come down to Johns’ wrestling. He has solid grappling and Morales hasn’t really shown the takedown defense necessary to win against someone the caliber of Johns.  I don’t think Johns is going to want to waste his time on the feet.  Morales is going to come out swinging with reckless abandon, so Johns will negate that with groundwork. One thing to pay attention to are low-kicks from Morales. He loves to throw them and Johns is very adept at catching those low kicks and using them against his opponent. Morales has good jiu-jitsu, nice ability to take the back and I’d even go so far as to say he’s the better striker.  I think the field is going to be all over Johns based on his last fight against Kwan Ho Kwak, scoring 118.5 points. Morales has a great chance to win and his price allows you a lot of flexibility in your lineups.

 

Pick: Johns for the win. Like both in all formats but Morales for a low-owned dog with a shot.

 

135 lbs.: Amanda Lemos +140 ($7,800) vs. Leslie Smith -170 ($8,400)

Lemos is making her bantamweight debut, so remember that. I suspect Smith to survive the first round and then win the second and third. For this weight class, Lemos is a heavy hitter. She just has a tendency to slow WAY down after the first round. She’s got good volume, or…likes to throw “punches in bunches”. However, she’s short for the weight class and tends to tire. Smith is a fighter who trains with Nate and Nick Diaz. She’s going to come out swinging and she won’t stop till the final bell.  I think at around the 3:30 – 4 min mark you’re going to see Smith take over this fight.  Smith SHOULD win this fight. Now, having said that I refer you to the opening paragraph, anything can happen in MMA. One thing about Smith, she gets hit….a lot. Lemos has a good power striking game.  I think Lemos may have the power to keep Smith away from her and punish her, taking the fight to a decision or even pulling out the finish. At that price, you almost have to take a shot at Lemos but Smith is a nice pick too based on her volume. I mean, she lands 6.81 significant strikes per minute. In her last fight, she had 124 points in a decision win, with no takedowns. I could even see stacking the value in stacking if one were so inclined.

 

P.S. If you haven’s yet, go to YouTube and key in “Leslie Smith…” the next two words that usually come up are “ear explodes”. That vid will show you how tough this woman is.

 

Pick: Lemos, all formats. Smith more of a GPP but like her in both formats as well.  

 

That’s it for UFC Fight Night 113, Glasgow! July 22 we have another Fight Night Card in New York with Weidman vs Gastelum. Should be a great card!

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David Lowther

Well I wouldn't be here if I weren't a sports fan,right? However it's true, from a small child born in Abilene Texas to an adult now located in Austin Texas, I've always, at some capacity been involved with sports. So much varied human emotion can be felt through sport. I love it. In the mid to late 2000's, before moving to Austin I had a sports radio show as well as an overnight podcast. There's nothing like discussing stats, likes, dislikes with like minded people. Since my move, I've been more involved in the writing aspect, through DFS, however that was such a good time.....I may have to get back into it. Aside from sports, I enjoy getting out in Austin.Checking out live music and events. I also spend time volunteer at local dog rescues caring for abused and neglected animals. I have two of my own and although it can be heartbreaking most of the time, the purity of the love on the eyes of a pup who's had a tough go of it and they finally receive some love. Powerful. Aside from that, just living life and getting to know the great people here at Draftshot.