Daily Fantasy MLB Hitters & Stacks – April 17th, 2018 (All Day)

We have 15 games today and I will cover them all, so this should be relevant regardless of which slate or site (FD or DK) you play.  DraftKings doesn’t have a classic MLB early slate today, so I will only include DK projections & values for main slate games.  Weather looks good across the board today so all games should be in play.

As always, check back throughout the day because I plan to update these rankings & recommendations as lineups are released and weather forecasts become clearer.

How did my previous picks do?

Now that’s more like it.  My sample FanDuel lineup from Saturday’s all-day slate preview scored 181 FPTS and easily cashed, finishing in the top 8% of the GPP I entered.  Scherzer scored 58 FPTS and all of my hitters scored at least 6 FPTS, led by 28.7 FPTS from Renfroe and 25.7 FPTS from Villar.  My only regret is that I was forced to swap out Villanueva after most games locked due to Hedges not starting…if I kept him I would have finished with 199 FPTS and finished in the top 3.5%.  Oh well, I can’t complain about a 300% return on my entrance fee.

Here’s how my sample lineups have fared thus far (all entered into large GPP tournaments):

# of lineups Average score (FD) Average GPP finish % of lineups that cashed
9 128 Top 42.5% 33%

 

Now let’s dive into today’s games…

My Favorite Hitter Stacks

Let’s first take a look at how the probable starting pitchers rank in terms of FPTS given up to hitters per plate appearance (over the past 1 year):

Pitcher Opponent FPTS/PA given up (FD) FPTS/PA given up (DK) # Plate appearances against
Eric Skoglund (P, KC) TOR 3.2 2.4 93
Trevor Cahill (P, OAK) CWS 2.7 2.1 381
Nick Pivetta (P, PHI) ATL 2.7 2 584
Francisco Liriano (P, DET) BAL 2.6 1.9 439
Zack Wheeler (P, NYM) WAS 2.5 1.9 386
Matt Moore (P, TEX) TB 2.5 1.9 790
Junior Guerra (P, MIL) CIN 2.5 1.8 314
Bryan Mitchell (P, SD) LAD 2.5 1.8 146
Chad Bettis (P, COL) PIT 2.4 1.9 200
Ariel Miranda (P, SEA) HOU 2.4 1.8 678
Miguel Gonzalez (P, CWS) OAK 2.4 1.8 684
Jake Odorizzi (P, MIN) CLE 2.4 1.8 604
Tyler Chatwood (P, CHC) STL 2.4 1.8 631
Masahiro Tanaka (P, NYY) MIA 2.4 1.8 752
Jaime Garcia (P, TOR) KC 2.3 1.8 673
Mike Foltynewicz (P, ATL) PHI 2.3 1.8 692
Sal Romano (P, CIN) MIL 2.3 1.8 384
Johnny Cueto (P, SF) ARI 2.3 1.8 648
Patrick Corbin (P, ARI) SF 2.3 1.8 826
Adam Wainwright (P, STL) CHC 2.3 1.7 546
Jarlin Garcia (P, MIA) NYY 2.2 1.7 225
Trevor Williams (P, PIT) COL 2 1.6 642
Lance McCullers Jr. (P, HOU) SEA 2 1.5 512
David Price (P, BOS) LAA 1.9 1.5 317
Andrew Cashner (P, BAL) DET 1.9 1.5 704
Gio Gonzalez (P, WAS) NYM 1.8 1.4 827
Alex Wood (P, LAD) SD 1.7 1.3 614
Corey Kluber (P, CLE) MIN 1.6 1.3 777

 

I omitted Yonny Chirinos (P, TB) and Shohei Ohtani (P, LAA) due to limited sample size, but I think by now we all know how talented Ohtani is and Chirinos has been no slouch either (giving up 0 ER in 14 innings pitched). I wouldn’t target hitters against either pitcher until they prove to be mortal.

Despite his small sample size, Eric Skoglund (P, KC) has been so much worse than every other pitcher on this slate that I think it’s worth the risk targeting Toronto hitters against him.

Now let’s drill down and take a look at how each pitcher fared against right-handed, left-handed, and switch-hitting batters. Here are the top splits by FPTS given up per plate appearance to hitters (minimum 50 plate appearances):

Pitcher Opponent Against hitters who bat… FPTS/PA given up (FD) FPTS/PA given up (DK) # Plate appearances against
Eric Skoglund (P, KC) TOR Right-handed 3.2 2.3 61
Nick Pivetta (P, PHI) ATL Right-handed 3.1 2.3 299
Matt Moore (P, TEX) TB Left-handed 3 2.3 196
Ariel Miranda (P, SEA) HOU Switch-hitter 2.9 2.2 97
Trevor Cahill (P, OAK) CWS Right-handed 2.9 2.2 209
Zack Wheeler (P, NYM) WAS Left-handed 2.9 2.2 130
Francisco Liriano (P, DET) BAL Right-handed 2.8 2.1 296
Miguel Gonzalez (P, CWS) OAK Left-handed 2.8 2.1 228
Adam Wainwright (P, STL) CHC Switch-hitter 2.8 2.2 67
Tyler Chatwood (P, CHC) STL Left-handed 2.8 2.1 252

 

There are a lot of juicy matchups to target and a lot of games today, so I’ll recommend 5 stacks today.  We’ll target the highlighted splits.

I will list multiple hitters for each potential stack, so feel free to choose any sized stack that you like from this list.  I will choose hitters from the projected starting lineups based on which side they bat from and their calculated “value”, which is their projected FPTS divided by their salary.  I use my own algorithm to generate projected FPTS for hitters, which is primarily based on the following:

  • Hitter’s average FPTS per plate appearance against similar pitchers over the past year
  • Hitter’s projected # of plate appearances (i.e. the league-wide average for his batting position)
  • Pitcher’s average FPTS per plate appearance given up to similar hitters over the past year
  • Ballpark factors (e.g. the impact of the ballpark on fantasy production) by R/L splits

The number before each player’s name is his projected position in the batting order.  Be sure to check the final batting order before lock to make sure your chosen players are all starting!  

Toronto Blue Jays right-handed hitters

1) Steve Pearce (R) – 11.4 proj FPTS & 4.07 value on FD ($2800)
2) Teoscar Hernandez (R) – 13.17 proj FPTS & 4.7 value on FD ($2800)
5) Russell Martin (R) – 10.21 proj FPTS & 4.44 value on FD ($2300)
8) Randal Grichuk (R) – 9.27 proj FPTS & 4.41 value on FD ($2100)
9) Devon Travis (R) – 12.62 proj FPTS & 5.74 value on FD ($2200)

This stack only applies to the FanDuel all-day slate but it offers exceptional value.  The entire Blue Jays lineup is in play today since they will all likely be righties or switch hitters, but these five players offer the best projected value.

Atlanta Braves right-handed hitters

2) Ozzie Albies (S) – 10.72 proj FPTS & 2.44 value on FD ($4400), 8.3 proj FPTS & 1.93 value on DK ($4300)
6) Dansby Swanson (R) – 9.95 proj FPTS & 2.62 value on FD ($3800), 7.56 proj FPTS & 2.36 value on DK ($3200)
8) Carlos Perez (R) – 11.33 proj FPTS & 5.66 value on FD ($2000), 8.58 proj FPTS & 3.9 value on DK ($2200)

The Braves only have three righties in their projected lineup and I don’t love the value outside of Perez, but it’s worth considering this stack to take advantage of Pivetta’s poor track record against righties.

Tampa Bay Rays hitters

1) Daniel Robertson (R) – 10.32 proj FPTS & 4.3 value on FD ($2400), 7.82 proj FPTS & 2.79 value on DK ($2800)
2) Adeiny Hechavarria (R) – 10.37 proj FPTS & 5.19 value on FD ($2000), 8 proj FPTS & 2.96 value on DK ($2700)
5) Wilson Ramos (R) – 9.86 proj FPTS & 4.93 value on FD ($2000), 7.52 proj FPTS & 2.69 value on DK ($2800)
7) Rob Refsnyder (R) – 8.69 proj FPTS & 4.35 value on FD ($2000), 6.6 proj FPTS & 3.14 value on DK ($2100)

Matt Moore exhibits fairly extreme reverse splits, so we’d like to target lefties against him.  The problem is that, other than Mallex Smith, the Rays don’t have any in their projected lineup.  Luckily even their righties are projected to have excellent value today as well.

Chicago White Sox right-handed hitters

1) Yoan Moncada (S) – 12.35 proj FPTS & 3.74 value on FD ($3300), 9.2 proj FPTS & 2.87 value on DK ($3200)
2) Avisail Garcia (R) – 12.33 proj FPTS & 4.25 value on FD ($2900), 9.52 proj FPTS & 2.98 value on DK ($3200)
5) Nicky Delmonico (L) – 10.68 proj FPTS & 4.86 value on FD ($2200), 8.06 proj FPTS & 2.69 value on DK ($3000)
6) Welington Castillo (R) – 10.88 proj FPTS & 4.73 value on FD ($2300), 8.39 proj FPTS & 2.8 value on DK ($3000)

Others will be scared off by Chicago’s low implied run total and poor track record, so this should be a good contrarian play today.

Baltimore Orioles right-handed hitters

1) Trey Mancini (R) – 11.55 proj FPTS & 3.73 value on FD ($3100)
2) Craig Gentry (R) – 12.66 proj FPTS & 5.5 value on FD ($2300)
4) Adam Jones (R) – 10.84 proj FPTS & 3.61 value on FD ($3000)
5) Danny Valencia (R) – 11.73 proj FPTS & 5.33 value on FD ($2200)
7) Tim Beckham (R) – 10.64 proj FPTS & 4.44 value on FD ($2400)

This is another sneaky stack that will be extremely contrarian today, but it only applies to the FD early slate.

Best Hitter Values

Note that the lists below were re-generated after the early games started, so these only include players from tonight’s main slate.

FanDuel – expensive hitters ($3500 or more)

Hitter FD Salary Opposing Pitcher Projected FPTS Value
Matt Carpenter (3B, STL) $3500 Tyler Chatwood (P, CHC) 12.62 3.61
Andrew McCutchen (OF, SF) $3600 Patrick Corbin (P, ARI) 12.83 3.56
Joey Votto (1B, CIN) $3600 Junior Guerra (P, MIL) 12.75 3.54
J.D. Martinez (OF, BOS) $4000 Shohei Ohtani (P, LAA) 13.27 3.32
Marcus Semien (SS, OAK) $3500 Miguel Gonzalez (P, CWS) 11.32 3.24
Jose Ramirez (3B, CLE) $4100 Jake Odorizzi (P, MIN) 12.59 3.07
Carlos Santana (1B, PHI) $3500 Mike Foltynewicz (P, ATL) 10.73 3.07
Ian Kinsler (2B, LAA) $3800 David Price (P, BOS) 11.46 3.02
Cody Bellinger (1B, LAD) $4000 Bryan Mitchell (P, SD) 11.97 2.99
Paul Goldschmidt (1B, ARI) $4300 Johnny Cueto (P, SF) 12.86 2.99

FanDuel – midrange hitters ($2500 to $3500)

Hitter FD Salary Opposing Pitcher Projected FPTS Value
Jesse Winker (OF, CIN) $2600 Junior Guerra (P, MIL) 12.56 4.83
Nick Williams (OF, PHI) $2500 Mike Foltynewicz (P, ATL) 12 4.8
Matt Joyce (OF, OAK) $2900 Miguel Gonzalez (P, CWS) 13.05 4.5
Adam Duvall (OF, CIN) $2500 Junior Guerra (P, MIL) 11.21 4.49
Ryan Zimmerman (1B, WAS) $2600 Zack Wheeler (P, NYM) 11.16 4.29
Avisail Garcia (OF, CWS) $2900 Trevor Cahill (P, OAK) 12.33 4.25
Gerardo Parra (OF, COL) $2500 Trevor Williams (P, PIT) 10.42 4.17
Ketel Marte (2B, ARI) $2500 Johnny Cueto (P, SF) 10.29 4.12
J.P. Crawford (SS, PHI) $2500 Mike Foltynewicz (P, ATL) 10.29 4.12
Matt Olson (1B, OAK) $3300 Miguel Gonzalez (P, CWS) 13.53 4.1

FanDuel – cheap hitters (less than $2500)

Hitter FD Salary Opposing Pitcher Projected FPTS Value
Carlos Perez (C, ATL) $2000 Nick Pivetta (P, PHI) 11.33 5.66
Austin Jackson (OF, SF) $2200 Patrick Corbin (P, ARI) 12.2 5.54
Daniel Descalso (3B, ARI) $2000 Johnny Cueto (P, SF) 10.62 5.31
Adeiny Hechavarria (SS, TB) $2000 Matt Moore (P, TEX) 10.37 5.19
Devin Mesoraco (C, CIN) $2100 Junior Guerra (P, MIL) 10.49 4.99
Wilson Ramos (C, TB) $2000 Matt Moore (P, TEX) 9.86 4.93
Nicky Delmonico (OF, CWS) $2200 Trevor Cahill (P, OAK) 10.68 4.86
Leury Garcia (OF, CWS) $2100 Trevor Cahill (P, OAK) 9.83 4.68
Cliff Pennington (SS, CIN) $2000 Junior Guerra (P, MIL) 9.08 4.54
Alex Avila (C, ARI) $2300 Johnny Cueto (P, SF) 10.3 4.48

DraftKings – expensive hitters ($4000 or more)

Hitter DK Salary Opposing Pitcher Projected FPTS Value
Matt Olson (1B, OAK) $4000 Miguel Gonzalez (P, CWS) 10.18 2.55
David Peralta (OF, ARI) $4000 Johnny Cueto (P, SF) 9.13 2.28
Starling Marte (OF, PIT) $4100 Chad Bettis (P, COL) 9.33 2.28
Jose Abreu (1B, CWS) $4200 Trevor Cahill (P, OAK) 9.52 2.27
Trea Turner (SS, WAS) $4400 Zack Wheeler (P, NYM) 9.97 2.27
Alex Bregman (3B, HOU) $4100 Ariel Miranda (P, SEA) 9 2.19
Cody Bellinger (1B, LAD) $4100 Bryan Mitchell (P, SD) 8.95 2.18
Joey Votto (1B, CIN) $4400 Junior Guerra (P, MIL) 9.54 2.17
Ian Kinsler (2B, LAA) $4100 David Price (P, BOS) 8.79 2.14
Andrew Benintendi (OF, BOS) $4100 Shohei Ohtani (P, LAA) 8.67 2.12

DraftKings – midrange hitters ($3000 to $4000)

Hitter DK Salary Opposing Pitcher Projected FPTS Value
Matt Joyce (OF, OAK) $3100 Miguel Gonzalez (P, CWS) 9.85 3.18
Jesse Winker (OF, CIN) $3000 Junior Guerra (P, MIL) 9.52 3.17
Scooter Gennett (2B, CIN) $3000 Junior Guerra (P, MIL) 9.19 3.06
Billy Hamilton (OF, CIN) $3300 Junior Guerra (P, MIL) 9.86 2.99
Avisail Garcia (OF, CWS) $3200 Trevor Cahill (P, OAK) 9.52 2.98
Andrew McCutchen (OF, SF) $3400 Patrick Corbin (P, ARI) 9.82 2.89
Nick Williams (OF, PHI) $3200 Mike Foltynewicz (P, ATL) 9.22 2.88
Yoan Moncada (2B, CWS) $3200 Trevor Cahill (P, OAK) 9.2 2.87
Matt Carpenter (2B/3B, STL) $3300 Tyler Chatwood (P, CHC) 9.41 2.85
Adam Duvall (OF, CIN) $3000 Junior Guerra (P, MIL) 8.41 2.8

DraftKings – cheap hitters (less than $3000)

Hitter DK Salary Opposing Pitcher Projected FPTS Value
Carlos Perez (C, ATL) $2200 Nick Pivetta (P, PHI) 8.58 3.9
Austin Jackson (OF, SF) $2800 Patrick Corbin (P, ARI) 9.44 3.37
Daniel Descalso (2B/3B, ARI) $2500 Johnny Cueto (P, SF) 8.09 3.24
Rob Refsnyder (OF, TB) $2100 Matt Moore (P, TEX) 6.6 3.14
Devin Mesoraco (C, CIN) $2600 Junior Guerra (P, MIL) 7.83 3.01
Adeiny Hechavarria (SS, TB) $2700 Matt Moore (P, TEX) 8 2.96
Sean Rodriguez (1B/2B, PIT) $2400 Chad Bettis (P, COL) 7.03 2.93
C.J. Cron (1B, TB) $2800 Matt Moore (P, TEX) 8.01 2.86
Hunter Pence (OF, SF) $2700 Patrick Corbin (P, ARI) 7.54 2.79
Daniel Robertson (2B/SS, TB) $2800 Matt Moore (P, TEX) 7.82 2.79

How I plan to approach this slate (on FanDuel)

I’ll be playing the main slate today on FanDuel, so unfortunately the Toronto and Baltimore stacks aren’t available to me.  Kluber is an easy choice at pitcher for me today as he offers excellent value and unrivaled upside, even against the dangerous Twins lineup.  I don’t see another pitcher who offers the same combination of high floor and high ceiling today, although Corbin is intriguing.

Since I’m spending up for my pitcher, I’ll need to be frugal with my hitters.  The Rays and White Sox stacks fit the bill nicely, so I’ll build a small stack of each team.  This leaves enough remaining salary to pay up for a few additional hitters from my top values list (Votto, Duvall, and Ramirez) to round out my lineup.

Here’s what my lineup looks like today:

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The Data Detective

I am a fantasy sports nut who has been playing season-long fantasy sports for 30 years and DFS for the past 2 years. As a professional software developer with 15+ years of experience working with data in the finance industry, my passion is using data analysis to gain a competitive advantage. I recently developed a software application that allows me to do an in-depth analysis of statistics from every MLB game in recent history, and I will use this blog to share my DFS-related findings as I explore this data.
2018-04-17T16:27:50+00:00April 17th, 2018|Fantasy Baseball News, MLB|